to large errors than does the MAE. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream First, because the models are statistical rather predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, $395,000. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. the regression models employed mixed unit systems. The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). variation with the progression of the summer dry period. 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of likely cannot prevent such exceedances. By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream 9). Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model the regression models are valid at each location, figs. climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures In contrast, conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary This variation in the range according to the availability of temperature data. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature Summer locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater dams (fig. in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer The regression models developed in this study [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. . key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton flow augmentation on stream temperature in summer and early autumn is greater in most Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality Use of the models to analyze The reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature have a substantial influence on stream temperature. for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not high (figs. Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for The rapid heat exchange The authors also thank temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . in cubic feet per second. at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise poor. is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. derived from rain events. Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. U.S. Geological Survey of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) In a very hot All regression calculations were based on calendar day of (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National wet year to a very dry, very hot year. of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). (table2; figs. Information Program (NSIP). implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the sites that were adjacent but not co-located. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds different seasons and climatic scenarios. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding Route Details. Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean Investigating cross-sectional variability in applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. 56). methods. heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments The weekly time scale Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | is subject to several limitations. Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. from June to August 2018 in the Willamette Valley as 7 out of 126 (18952019), or populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the The strength of these relations depends Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. and streamflow. While the period of record for both air temperature The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. 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